update of September 15
Update as of August 19
Also, this little item from the Green Party
McKinney chose as her running mate Rosa Clemente, the New York City-based hip-hop community activist and journalist. …. her presence on the ticket has the potential to boost the number of African-Americans voting for the Green Party. . McKinney is aiming for 5 percent of the national vote which would qualify the Green Party for federal funding and establish it as a national party.
On this electoral map today, NY figures as “weak democrat” with Obama 47% to Mccain 39
My July prediction still holds
Update: Rassmunsen tracking poll today
Saturday shows Barack Obama attracting 43% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 46% and McCain 46%
Original post – NY only
Gore, Kerry took NY by 60% (and yes – they won their elections too for the record).
So, imagine my surprise when I see the “clincher” at 50%! (ony 45% per CBS) and here’s the trend they notice:
Democrat Barack Obama now holds a six-point edge over his Republican rival John McCain, leading 45% to 39%. But more voters now than last month are undecided, and more than one in four who express a candidate choice could still change their minds.
The Siena research Institute which did the NY poll says:
Obama’s lead over McCain is 50-37 percent, down from 51-33 percent in June.
So, he no longer has a majority. From what I know NYC-ers (the majority vote in NYS) the flip-flops of June played a big number in that shift. This is a city that easily gets one million people to demonstrate against the war. And they vote!
And the pollsters didn’t even factor in 3rd party candidates. I predict McKinney will do nicely here – her nomination took place this month. . Even Nader will get some votes. And some PUMAS may easily shift the balance. Watch for it, SDs!
Seems to me certain magnificent big cats hold 31 electoral votes in their paws (“and then, the claws come out”) Yeah, Obama – all 31 electoral votes go to the winner – Howie can’t make special rules for you now!
reminds me of the last third of this video
please vote this up here
National Poll Averages; New York and Washington
7/16/08
| Candidate | ABC | CBS | Quinnipiac | NY | WA |
| Pollster | ABC | CBS | Qpac | SRI | M-Info |
| Date | 7/10-13 | 7/7-14 | 7/8-13 | 7/7-10 | 7/9-10 |
| Barack Obama | 50% | 45% | 50% | 50% | 47% |
| John McCain | 45% | 39% | 41% | 37% | 37% |
| Details | Link | Link | Link | Link | Link |
Not Your Sweetie 
15 comments
July 19, 2008 at 7:27 am
strayyellardawg
I will be watching… and celebrating….. if NYS goes Red in November.
Of course, we will make it Blue again in 2012… with Hillary at the top of our ticket!
July 19, 2008 at 8:04 am
Jill
You can thank Obama the flip flopper and the DNC.
The Democratic Party had the perfect candidate but through her under the bus along with the rest of the democratic core voters.
July 19, 2008 at 8:59 am
Clinton Fan
The Dems could have had NY in a landslide. Now they’ll have to fight and spend money like crazy to try to hang on to what used to be reliably blue states.
Obama is a crummy candidate. There’s just no gilding that pile of crap to make him look experienced, possessed of good judgment and integrity, honorable, or even compassionate. He just….sucks, on so many levels.
July 19, 2008 at 9:38 am
edgeoforever
Other states like Arkansas, Virginia – which were blue for Hillary – are now definitely McCains’s. B0 is “redrawing the map”
Please vote for this here
http://readerarticles.realclearpolitics.com/?period=all
July 19, 2008 at 11:33 am
Polljunkie Report, July 19: DEAD HEAT! « A McCain Democrat’s Journal
[…] NY is CLOSE? NY May Go Red in November […]
July 19, 2008 at 11:37 am
Ricki Lieberman
ELECTABILITY!
That is the only job of the Super Delegates in Denver – to select the electable candidate to get Democrats back to the White House, and she is HRC!
Obama is the selected presumptive nominee, but until those SDs vote in Denver, nothing is fixed.
Join the ELECTABILITY WATCH at rrlieberma@gamail.com if you would like to see Senator Clinton be the nominee of the Democratic Party.
July 19, 2008 at 11:42 am
Alex H.
Yeah! Let’s get another Republican in for four more years! Let’s watch more young Americans come home from a war based on lies missing their limbs! Let’s provide support for policies that have encouraged economic problems while insulating the richest Americans! That will show those Obama supporters and other Americans!
Had Clinton won the primary, I wouldn’t have given her campaign money, and I would have tried to change her mind on issues like the war and presidential policies, but there is no question she would have had my vote.
If you really think McCain will be a better president–if you don’t mind another 4-year “war president,” if you think voodoo economics works, if you are not troubled by his temper, if you don’t mind that he fought against MLK day, or that he will continue a war on science, or that he will support changing our constitution to make sure gays can’t marry, or that he doesn’t support gay couples adopting, or that he “doesn’t have an opinion” on whether insurance companies should cover birth control, or that he wants to outlaw and otherwise restrict access to abortions–then by all means vote for him. If you want to vote for him to “teach America a lesson” then you are even worse than those who are voting for him because they deeply believe in permanent war and his “traditional” (regressive) values. We already know what McCain has promised, and electing him guarantees another nail in the coffin of the American Dream.
July 19, 2008 at 6:35 pm
NYSmike
Seems with a majority increase in both the House and Senate, a President McCain will be forced to work across the aisle, not such a bad thing. After 8 long years of the worst president ever, because voters put party first before nation, it’s time to put nation before party. This recently ex-dem will not be voting for the flip-flopper who has no clue what the job entails. And I am ashamed of my Governor for telling the NAACP that a vote against Obama is a racist vote! If you believe that David Patterson, then you truly don’t know the voters.
July 19, 2008 at 6:39 pm
fredshelm
Alex H. Were you describing Obama’s positions or John McCain’s? Because Obama just changed his entire platform to mirror John McCain’s. You haven’t been keeping up with the news, have you?
Alex, have you seen the Obama debate? If not, you should check out the transcript:
July 19, 2008 at 8:35 pm
edgeoforever
Alex H
No one has said mCCain would be a better president. But is is hypocrisy of ignorance that you use the war stick on us here? because….like with NAFTA, he told you one thing and Iraq’s prime minister another (same thing Mccain told him). See for yourself:
July 20, 2008 at 9:02 am
nv1962
I’d rather see a real Republican in the WH than a flim-flamming wannabe one who shamelessly drools over Reagan’s absurd spell over toadie Democrats. Let’s see where Barack Hussein McCain agrees with his Republican opponent: not withdrawing troops from Irak until he’s “satisfied” that the situation warrants is and therefore not sticking to timetables? Check! Strongly opposed to introducing universal health care coverage through inevitable mandated universal participation? Check! Pandering to so-called pro-life pastors who call upon rejecting contributions from such radical terrorist organizations like Planned Parenthood while mouthing the value of giving “information” and “moral support” to desperate single pregnant women instead of empowering them with a real choice? Check! Espousing void rhetoric about the economy and declaring oil independence a nice idea without a serious, solid economic rebuilding plan that puts the lower and middle income classes (you know, the real life ones living < $80K/yr) on a path to strongly improved spendable income to crawl out of credit hell? Check! Refusing to push back on the pillaging of public education by moronic zealots who think “intelligent design” is a swell albeit sadly unproven concept? Check!
Nah, I’ll stick with supporting a strong Democratic Concress, to see if they manage to grow a spine, and keep the McCain administration in check.
After two terms of make-belief government I’m not entirely ready to put up with another claiming an alternative course running under a false flag. I can’t stomach that phony weasel, and he’s not getting support for his lofty “change” and “hope” BS that he apparently manages to sell to a lot of blind mice in love with his charade.
Yeah, I’ll take McCain instead: someone to disagree with on policies, instead of policies and a lack of integrity.
July 20, 2008 at 3:09 pm
Obama’s Candidacy Puts New York Into Play - May Go Red « Texas Hill Country
[…] 20, 2008 Robbedvoter at NotYourSweetie does a great job putting together a variety of polls and trends showing Obama’s numbers in […]
July 20, 2008 at 10:35 pm
Hoofy
Good job Dean! Great work Pelosi! Way to go Brazillenut! Your teleprompter-dependent wind-up plastic Jesus is running out of gas. I’m going to pop a bottle of champagne when he goes into a giant face-skid in November.
August 19, 2008 at 10:21 pm
And there goes NYC « Not Your Sweetie
[…] 19, 2008 · No Comments I have been updating my prediction of last month that NY may go red and NY Sun reports […]
August 19, 2008 at 10:22 pm
Oops there goes NY! 31 electoral votes! « Not Your Sweetie
[…] 19, 2008 · No Comments I have been updating my prediction of last month that NY may go red and NY Sun reports […]