update of September 15
Update as of August 19
Also, this little item from the Green Party
McKinney chose as her running mate Rosa Clemente, the New York City-based hip-hop community activist and journalist. …. her presence on the ticket has the potential to boost the number of African-Americans voting for the Green Party. . McKinney is aiming for 5 percent of the national vote which would qualify the Green Party for federal funding and establish it as a national party.
On this electoral map today, NY figures as “weak democrat” with Obama 47% to Mccain 39
My July prediction still holds
Update: Rassmunsen tracking poll today
Saturday shows Barack Obama attracting 43% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 46% and McCain 46%
Original post – NY only
Gore, Kerry took NY by 60% (and yes – they won their elections too for the record).
So, imagine my surprise when I see the “clincher” at 50%! (ony 45% per CBS) and here’s the trend they notice:
Democrat Barack Obama now holds a six-point edge over his Republican rival John McCain, leading 45% to 39%. But more voters now than last month are undecided, and more than one in four who express a candidate choice could still change their minds.
The Siena research Institute which did the NY poll says:
Obama’s lead over McCain is 50-37 percent, down from 51-33 percent in June.
So, he no longer has a majority. From what I know NYC-ers (the majority vote in NYS) the flip-flops of June played a big number in that shift. This is a city that easily gets one million people to demonstrate against the war. And they vote!
And the pollsters didn’t even factor in 3rd party candidates. I predict McKinney will do nicely here – her nomination took place this month. . Even Nader will get some votes. And some PUMAS may easily shift the balance. Watch for it, SDs!
Seems to me certain magnificent big cats hold 31 electoral votes in their paws (“and then, the claws come out”) Yeah, Obama – all 31 electoral votes go to the winner – Howie can’t make special rules for you now!
reminds me of the last third of this video
please vote this up here
National Poll Averages; New York and Washington