Original date – September 24

here’s their sample
METHODOLOGY: This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Sept. 19-22, 2008, among a random sample of 1,082 adults, including an oversample of African Americans (weighted to their correct share of the national population), for a total of 163 black respondents. Results among the 916 registered voters surveyed have a 3-point error margin; among the 780 likely voters, 3.5-points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, PA.

So, they assume that 100% of African Americans over 18 will vote. But strangely enough, not other segments of the population. I wonder why?


The McCain Campaign actually objected to the poll on other imbalances:

At the crux of McInturff’s argument was the fact that the Democratic party identification in the Post poll was 16 points higher than the Republican identification — a far larger margin than the Democratic ID edge in other recent public polling.

The response was quite lame

Jon Cohen, the Post’s polling director, explained that the actual party ID numbers among likely voters had Democrats plus six points. It was only when people who offer no original party ID were asked whether they leaned one direction or the other that the number jumped to Democrats +16.

Awww…they didn’t know…the check was in the mail…the goat ate their homework.

Update of October 1

New poll shows Obama losing ground

Last week Obama was up by nine in the ABC/Washington Post poll and it was front page news. This week Obama is up by 4, within 1 point of the margin of error and the poll cannot be found. Instead the story is Bush’s approval rating which finds a new low in this poll.

Interestingly the internals of the pollΒ are difficultΒ to find. I have been unable to find the party ID of those polled.

the poll:

New ABC News/Washington Post national poll conducted after the debate (Sept 27-29) shows that John McCain has picked up 5 points on Barack Obama during the last week, moving from a nine-point deficit to trailing by four:

Obama 50 (-2 vs. last poll Sept 19-22)
McCain 46 (+3)

A similar pick up occurred in the Gallup

The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update of registered voters finds Barack Obama at 48%, and John McCain at 44%, marking a slight narrowing of the race from the eight percentage point margin Obama held earlier this week.