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In Democracy Corps’ latest surveys of 1,000 likely voters nationally and 1,017 likely voters in the presidential battleground states, the vote margin has shifted 7 points towards John McCain nationally and 9 points in the battleground. This swing puts McCain ahead of Barack Obama by 2 points nationally (48 to 46 percent), consistent with the national public polls, and by 1 point in the battleground states (48 to 47 percent).
the lost frontier of non-college older voters
Finally, Obama has lost ground with white voters over 50 years of age — particularly, non-college, white seniors and women. This is the most challenging trend because Obama began losing these older voters during his own convention, despite Obama’s identity, vision and biography gaining him votes nationally and in the battleground states. But these older voters appear skeptical about Obama because of his youth, perhaps his race, and because of concerns about him being too liberal, not patriotic enough or too willing to raise taxes. They also find McCain’s biography and strength especially appealing. Whatever the reason, these voters have been moving away and making it hard for Obama to build up a lead.
Geez, I wonder – what did Obama do, during his own convention to lose these voters? Bueler? Anyone?
These are the key troublesome groups where there is clearly a desire to vote more Democratic:
- White senior women: Obama only receives 39 percent of their votes — 8 points below the Congressional Democrat (who receives 47 percent) and 8 points below the proportion of white senior women identifying with the Democratic Party. The same pattern is evident in the presidential battleground states where Obama underperforms the Congressional Democratic candidate by 7 points and party identification by 5 points.
- White older (over 50 years of age) women: Obama only receives 40 percent of the vote among white women over 50, which is 6 points below the level of support they give to the Congressional Democratic candidate (46 percent), and 6 points behind the proportion of this bloc who identify as Democratic.
- White older (over 50 years of age) unmarried women: Obama receives 46 percent of the vote from white unmarried voters who are over 50 years old. Though this is a good margin, it is 6 points below the support they show for the Democratic Congressional candidate and 11 points below the proportion of this bloc who identify with the Democratic
The internal Republican and Democratic polls, details of which were provided to The Post, have stunned members of both parties – and produced deep worries among Democrats.
One great concern for Democrats is that the data show a continuous movement toward the McCain-Palin ticket by women, a majority of whom traditionally favor Democrats.
The movement by women toward McCain is being credited to Democratic attacks on Alaska Gov. Palin, last week’s “lipstick on a pig” crack by Obama and to the continuing unhappiness by female Democrats over Obama’s failure to pick Hillary Rodham Clinton as his running mate.
Seems PUMAs need to get busier in NY.
And FYI, NY Post – it wasn’t the VP texting at 3 AM, but more the selection of unelected Obama. But we’ll quibble over details later.
Now, I need to do this:
CAN YOU HEAR US NOW?????
Update September 16
According to the survey, New York voters favor Mr. Obama on most major issues, including the economy, health care, the Iraq war, and education, while Mr. McCain holds an edge on national security. Mr. McCain does better than Mr. Obama when voters are asked about attributes they look for in a president, scoring higher on questions regarding patriotism, experience, integrity, and leadership.
They also note that Obama’s lead is
barely outside the survey’s 3.9% margin of error.
I am very proud to have been right since back in July
Now, the latest Sienna poll shows Obama’s lead down to 5 points. From 18
THE NUMBERS: Barack Obama 46 percent, John McCain 41 percent.
OF INTEREST: The lead is down from 18 points in June, when Obama led 51-33 percent over McCain in a Siena poll.
As I noted in my previous entry, 3rd parties will do well in NY – it was bad faith of the pollster to not include them. The reality is probably a tie at best.
Nader himself is pretty sure to get 5% in NY and McKinney will take a few percentages too.
These are not coming from McCain support. I don’t think Barr will register in NY.
and a good comment about the 50 states strategy
At the beginning of the month, the McCain campaign shocked pundits when they opened offices in California, New Jersey and Washington. Although the move was questioned by many political analysts, individual state polling numbers may reflect the potential of forcing Obama to defend traditionally blue states.
However, according to the NY Post
McCain’s surge in New York polling comes at a time when his national operatives have rebuffed requests from New York campaign chairman Ed Cox, a Manhattan lawyer and son-in-law to former President Richard Nixon, to spend some serious campaign money in the state.
“Ed was told, ‘You have no money for a campaign here, so why should we spend any?’ ” a nationally known Republican operative told The Post.
“The McCain people think of Ed as a nice guy, but there’s no money for an organization in New York, so they ask, ‘Why go in?’ ” the GOP operative continued.
One more thing: whatever happened to Nader? last seen throwing Ohio to McCain has since totally disappeared from polling. I wonder why that is? They used to only hide the Greens.
update of September 19
also lowest it’s ever been. 3rd parties not polled for either.
In fact, Obama had told the Iraqis that they should not rush through a “Strategic Framework Agreement” governing the future of US forces until after President George W. Bush leaves office, she said.
Double talk follows
According to Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, Obama made his demand for delay a key theme of his discussions with Iraqi leaders in Baghdad in July.
“He asked why we were not prepared to delay an agreement until after the US elections and the formation of a new administration in Washington,” Zebari said in an interview.
Obama insisted that Congress should be involved in negotiations on the status of US troops – and that it was in the interests of both sides not to have an agreement negotiated by the Bush administration in its “state of weakness and political confusion.”
and although Mr Anti-war
claims the US presence is “illegal,” he suddenly remembered that Americans troops were in Iraq within the legal framework of a UN mandate. His advice was that, rather than reach an accord with the “weakened Bush administration,” Iraq should seek an extension of the UN mandate.
The upshot is
hen, judging by how long the current talks have taken, restarting the process from scratch would leave the two sides needing at least six months to come up with a draft accord. That puts us at May 2010 for when the draft might be submitted to the Iraqi parliament – which might well need another six months to pass it into law.
Thus, the 2010 deadline fixed by Obama is a meaningless concept, thrown in as a sop to his anti-war base.
Of course this is n longer shocking, considering that we already knew of the promises he made Iraq
He said he was reassured by the candidate’s response, which caused him to think that Mr. Obama might not differ all that much from Mr. McCain. Mr. Zebari said that in addition to promising a visit, Mr. Obama said that “be a Democratic administration, it will not take any irresponsible, reckless, sudden decisions or action to endanger your gains, your achievements, your stability or security
Random thought: on a karmic level, it’s what Bush did to Gore when he sabotaged Clinton’s Israel/Palestinian peace talks.
On a human level – it makes both Bush and Obama responsible for lives lost.
This time, we just found he went one step further, urging them to wait longer – so he could profit politically. gee, I wonder if B0bots even remember this one:
More Hillary talk on Snafi show with Fiorina and Caskill
STEPHANOPOULOS: Let me get to another point that is raised in this interview. Sarah Palin was asked by Charlie Gibson about Hillary Clinton. Here is what she had to say.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PALIN: I think he’s regretting not picking her now. I do.
But what determination and grit and even grace through some tough shots that were fired her way. She handled those well.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
STEPHANOPOULOS: Even Senator Biden said this week that Hillary might have been a better pick. Did Senator Obama give the McCain campaign an opening by not picking Hillary Clinton?
MCCASKILL: Well, I think that Joe Biden is going to be a terrific vice president. Joe Biden is fully capable of stepping into the presidency at a moment’s notice.
I also think it’s important, George, once again, this issue is about being honest and forthcoming with the American people. John McCain has not told the truth about Sarah Palin . He has run an ad that is terribly distorted and full of lies about — you’re talking about making women mad. When women figure out that John McCain has run an ad saying that when Barack Obama wanted to give education to kindergarteners about how to avoid sexual predators, that in fact, they ran an ad that said that he wanted to give them sex education? I mean, this is the kind of game that’s being played on those…
STEPHANOPOULOS: So no regrets about Hillary Clinton.
MCCASKILL: And by the way, speaking about honest, Sarah Palin this summer called Hillary Clinton a whiner.
We interrupt this smear for a little reality
And now it’s oh, you know, they are being disrespectful to Hillary. I didn’t hear her say that when she was asked that before she was the vice presidential pick. And when John McCain was asked a question at a forum — you remember this — someone said, “how do we stop the b,” referring to Hillary Clinton, and John McCain laughed. So all — and they had buttons at their convention (inaudible)…
STEPHANOPOULOS: What’s your response, Carly Fiorina? FIORINA: Well, first, let’s just remember for the record — it was the Barack Obama campaign that launched the first negative ad. Let’s just recall, if we want to talk about honesty, let’s recall the spate of ads that said that John McCain was in favor of a 100-year war in Iraq. Please, I mean, this high and mighty attitude that somehow John McCain has stopped to a new level in politics is A, untrue, and B, as I recall, Barack Obama promised a campaign of hope and politics of promise, et cetera, et cetera.
But having said that, my personal opinion — Barack Obama made a critical strategic error by not choosing Hillary Clinton. There are a whole host of women in the Democratic Party who believe the Democratic Party does not understand what sexism is, routinely underestimates the impact of women, and they are coming in droves to the Republican Party because they think the party and John McCain get it. That’s a fact.
STEPHANOPOULOS: It is true that this week, we saw a 20-point swing among white women in our ABC News poll.