The heading is interesingly: Obama vs Kerry? This is from a NCEC mailing that starts with the erroneous assumption that

Now that Senator Barack Obama has secured the Democratic nomination for president, Democrats can move forward as a party to face an even more daunting task: defeating John McCain.

I didn’t expect any sound judgment to come after that, but I found interesting that they are lowering expectations:

National polls consistently show Barack Obama ahead of McCain, but those polls are seldom an accurate reflection of how the Electoral College will play out. Every analysis of the electoral map suggests that 2008 will be just as close as the two preceding elections. Some new states have joined the elite “swing state” club,(meaning states Hillary won, Obama can’t)

but the only important number stays the same, 270. National polls suggest that Democrats have a slight advantage, but in going state-to-state the situation is complicated. NCEC is not stopping to rest or reflect after the primary; we are moving ahead, because we know that every day counts.

I wonder if “as close as the two preceding elections” is code for “we might not make it? I am one of the few who know the past two presidential elections were stolen – put THEY never quite admited it – for THEM – those were losses. So, as they watch Hillary’s states going to McCain they plan on winning others -

the re-drawing the map thingy…

Considering the erroneous presumption all this planning started with, i wouldn’t hold my breath…Even ignoring the fact that most of those states are leaning mccain, i don’t see how their EVs will make up for Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio…..

Frankly, It’s wishful thinking – considering what delegates told Hillary

while the
party might lose the election in the short term (the presidential
election, that is), the long term would be good, as the party would
have lots of new voters and money.

Updated with another look at electoral votes

About these ads